A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
